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Just 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source for the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have piled up.

As per Opta, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing Manchester United.

His opener originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent might become the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.