Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
